Statement Of Sen. Patrick Leahy
On
Nepal's Downward Spiral
December 21, 2005

Mr. President, this is the third time in the past six months that I have spoken in this chamber about Nepal.  I do so because this land of mostly impoverished tea and rice farmers who toil between India and China on precipitous hillsides in the shadows of the Himalayas, is experiencing a political crisis that may plunge the country into chaos.   

As many predicted, King Gyanendra’s seizure of absolute power on February 1^st and suppression of civil liberties has damaged Nepal’s foreign relations, triggered clashes between pro-democracy demonstrators and the police, and strengthened the Maoist insurgency. 

The Maoists, whose use of extortion and brutality against poor villagers has spread throughout the country, announced a unilateral ceasefire on September 3^rd which they recently extended for an additional month.  Although flawed, the ceasefire was the impetus for a loose alliance with Nepal’s weak political parties after the King refused to negotiate with them and sought instead to consolidate his own grip on power.   

Last month, the Maoists and the parties endorsed a vaguely worded but important 12 point understanding that could be the basis for a national dialogue to restore democracy and end the conflict.  That, however, would require some reciprocal confidence building measures by the army, which has so far rejected the Maoist ceasefire as a ploy and continues to see itself as the defender of an anachronistic, corrupt and autocratic monarchy. 

Although the army has won praise for its role in international peacekeeping missions, its reputation has been badly tarnished because of its abusive and ineffective campaign against the Maoists.  It has engaged in arbitrary arrests, torture and extrajudicial killings of ordinary citizens, which has alienated many of the same people who have been victims of the Maoists.

On December 10^th, when hundreds of Nepali citizens took to the streets to protest the King’s repressive actions, the police used force to break up the rally and arrested several dozen people.  The press reported another 120 arrests and dozens injured in demonstrations on December 17^th.  More protests are likely, and it may be only a matter of time before Katmandu is in the full throes of a pitched battle between pro-democracy demonstrators and the King’s security forces.

This is the disheartening situation in which Nepal finds itself today.  The immediate challenge for the United States is how to help promote a political dialogue which includes the broadest possible participation from Nepali society to restore and strengthen democracy and end the conflict. 

The Maoist ceasefire, while welcome, was a tactical move to lure the political parties into an alliance and further isolate the palace.  There is no way to predict with confidence if the Maoists would participate in a political process in good faith, or simply use it as a ruse to gain new recruits and weapons.  A resumption of attacks against civilians would be condemned and resisted by the international community.  The Maoists should know that they cannot defeat the government by force, and as long as they extort money and property and abduct children they will be seen as enemies of the Nepali people.   

Similarly, military experts have concluded that Nepal’s undisciplined army cannot defeat a determined insurgency that attacks civilians and army posts and then disappears into the mountains. 

There are also concerns about Nepal’s political parties, who do not have a record of putting the interests of the nation above their own self interest.  But the political parties, for all their flaws, are the real representatives of the Nepali people.  They urgently need to reform, but there is no substitute for them.  

Despite these difficulties and uncertainties, it is clear that the King has failed to provide the leadership to build bridges with the country’s democratic forces and develop a workable plan.  It is also clear that efforts by the international community, including the United States, to appeal to the King to start such a process, have failed.  The Bush Administration should apply whatever pressure it can, including denying U.S. visas to Nepali officials and their families.

With few options and no guarantees, Nepal’s hour of reckoning is approaching.  There is a growing possibility that the King’s obstinacy and unpopularity will trigger massive civil unrest, shootings and arrests of many more civilians by soldiers and police, Nepal’s further isolation, and perhaps the end of the monarchy itself. 

Only the army has the ability to convince the King to abandon his imperial ambitions, but time is running out.  The army’s chief of staff, General Pyar Jung Thapa, was privileged to receive training at the Army War College and he has participated in other U.S. military training programs.  He has led Nepali troops in UN peacekeeping missions.  He knows, or he should have learned, that the function of a modern, professional military is to protect the rights and security of the people, not the privileges of a dictator who has squandered the moral authority of his office.  It is not only in the interests of Nepal, but in the army’s long term self interest, to show real leadership at this critical time.   

The United States should do everything possible to encourage the army to announce its own ceasefire, to accept international observers as the Maoists have said they would do, and to support a broadly inclusive political dialogue with or without the participation of the palace. 

Such a process, to be meaningful, must lead to free and fair elections.  The municipal elections announced by King Gyanendra for early next year, without any consultation with the political parties, are no solution.  An attempt to apply a veneer of legitimacy to an otherwise undemocratic process will only prolong and exacerbate this crisis. 

Many of the Maoist’s grievances mirror those of the majority of Nepal’s people who for centuries have suffered from discrimination, poverty, and abuse by one corrupt government after another.  But Nepal’s problems, which are at the root of the conflict, can only be solved through a transparent, democratic process.  The Maoists have opened the door a crack for that to begin.  The army should reciprocate.  The international community should lend its support. 

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